Enrollment numbers are a snapshot in time. On September 30 of each year, all school districts are required to report their enrollment number to the Illinois State Board of Education (ISBE).
On September 28, 2018 (September 30 was not a school day), District 86 reported 2,726 as the enrollment number for Central and 1,445 as the enrollment number for South.
Approximately 65% of students attend Central and 35% attend South.
Has the District ever conducted a demography study?
Yes. In August of 2015, demographer Dr. John Kasarda presented a demography report to the Board. Known as the Kasarda report, the report shows that Central is trending between Series B, "as projected" and Series C, "higher than projected." South is trending at Series B, "as projected."
The Kasarda report looks at a variety of factors in trying to estimate future enrollment like birth rate, housing turnover and inbound migration of households with school-age children.
There are two other factors that are likely to affect enrollment going forward, the elimination of the Buffer Zone and the current situation District 86 is in.
In June 2018, the Board eliminated the attendance area previously known as the Buffer Zone, assigning 2,227 of the total 2,830 parcels in the former Buffer Zone to South and assigning 603 parcels to Central. While the number of possible number of future students from those parcels is impossible for District 86 to know, the Board increased the attendance area for South and decreased the attendance area for Central.
Another unknown is the current effect of cuts or referendum outcome on enrollment.